climate change

Tidal flooding, hurricane risk grow along New Jersey coast, new study finds by GlobalPolicyLab Member

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New Jersey’s coast is under growing risk of tidal flooding and hurricane-caused floods as the world’s climate continues to change, according to a new report by the Rhodium Group’s Energy & Climate Team and collaborators from the UC Berkeley-based Global Policy Lab and the University of Chicago.

The report finds that frequent flooding risk threatens 23,000 more homes and other buildings worth a total of $13 billion in New Jersey compared to homes and buildings threatened in the state by 1980 sea levels.

Another 62,000 to 86,000 more homes and commercial properties in the state, worth more than $60 billion, sit in areas with a 1-in-30 chance of hurricane flooding, the report finds. That risk extends inland too, with the chance of hurricane-force winds affecting the average New Jersey home outside coastal counties growing from 1 in 200 four decades ago to between 1 in 30 and 1 in 100 in any given year now.

By mid-century, another 33,000 to 58,000 buildings in the state will flood frequently, the report finds.

The report’s authors are Hannah Hess, Michael Delgado, Ali Hamidi and Trevor Houser from the Rhodium Group, Ian Bolliger and Solomon Hsiang of UC Berkeley and Michael Greenstone from the University of Chicago.

Publication: measuring effects of geoengineering on agriculture using volcanoes by Solomon Hsiang

Jon ProctorSolomon Hsiang, and coauthors published a study in Nature estimating the effect of solar radiation management (SRM) on global agricultural production. The paper exploits the historical eruption of massive volcanoes that inject sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere to understand the effect of changing light conditions on crop yields. The paper finds that benefits from cooling, the intended effect of SRM, are fully offset by harm to yields via shading. 

Read the study ungated here.

A resource page for the article is here.

Press release here.

Visualization of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols injected into the atmosphere after the eruption of Mt Pinatubo. Each frame is a month. Visualization by Jon Proctor & Solomon Hsiang.

WSJ economics column on mortality costs of climate change by Solomon Hsiang

Greg Ip discussed our research into the global economic costs of excess mortality risk caused by climate change in his recent Wall Street Journal column.

The research covered in the article is output from the Climate Impact Lab, a collaboration between the GPL at Berkeley, EPIC at U Chicago, The Rutgers Earth System Science & Policy Lab, and the Rhodium Group.

Credit: Wall Street Journal

Credit: Wall Street Journal

Publication: Effect of Temperature on Math performance and learning by Solomon Hsiang

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Joshua Graff Zivin, Matthew Neidell and Sol Hsiang published a new article "Temperature and human capital in the short and long run". Analyzing over 24,000 student exams and following individual students over time, they demonstrate that cognitive performance in mathematics declines at high temperatures, but not in reading or verbal exams.

Read the article here.

Paper: Pricing climate by Solomon Hsiang

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Tatyana Deryugina and Solomon Hsiang have a new NBER working paper out titled "The Marginal Product of Climate". The analysis develops a formal theory for how overall economic productivity due to the climate should be valued, accounting for the fact that populations adapt to changes in their climate. They apply their approach to data on the United States and estimate that "business as usual" warming is worth roughly $6.7 trillion in foregone production within the US market economy.

Read the paper here.

Paper: The Distribution of Environmental Damages by GlobalPolicyLab Member

Solomon Hsiang has a new joint paper with Paulina Oliva, and Reed Walker reviewing and exploring what is known about the distributional consequences of environmental damages and the benefits of environmental policy. They provide a general framework for empiricists and explore what is known in the context of pollution, deforestation, and climate. The NBER working paper is available online here. The article is forthcoming in the Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.

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Publication: Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India by GlobalPolicyLab Member

Tamma Carleton has a new paper out in PNAS linking the climate to suicide rates in India. 

The analysis is the first to provide large-scale empirical evidence that the climate influences suicide rates in a developing country. The study shows that temperature during India's main agricultural growing season has a substantial influence over annual suicide rates, such that heating up the country by just 1 degree C on one day causes approximately 65 annual suicides. This effect appears to materialize through an agricultural channel in which high temperatures cause crop losses and economic distress, leading some to commit suicide in response. Carleton estimates that warming trends experienced in India since 1980 are responsible for a total of over 59,000 suicides.

See the paper here.

Publication: Climate Damage in the United States by Solomon Hsiang

James Rising, Solomon Hsiang, and former lab member Amir Jina, along with other teammates from the Climate Impact Lab, have a new paper out in Science calculating economic damages from climate change in the United States.  

The analysis is the first to construct a "damage function" using micro-level econometric results for a large number of sectors, linked to the full suite of climate models used in CMIP5.  Because the analysis has high spatial resolution, it is able to resolve how impacts of unmitigated climate damages across the country will vary, demonstrating that it will substantially increase economic inequality.

See the paper and an interactive visualization of results.

Hsiang Science USA

Update: The team at the Associated Press did a really nice interactive visualization of the results:

Climate Impact Lab Interactive Maps Launch + NYT Feature by Solomon Hsiang

Two big things happened today. First, our team at the Climate Impact Lab launched an interactive data visualization page where many of our results will be featured as we produce them. You can zoom to the future and see probabilistic outcomes at unprecedented resolution (>24,000 individual regions!).

Second, the New York Times featured the the Impact Lab's work and built their own visualization to illustrate the changing frequency of extremely hot days expected in the future.

Obama cites GPL climate economics research by Solomon Hsiang

In his recent Science article The Irreversible Momentum of Clean Energy,  President Obama jumped into the "growth vs. levels" debate among empirical economists studying the effects of climate change, writing 

[E]vidence is mounting that any economic strategy that ignores carbon pollution will impose tremendous costs to the global economy and will result in fewer jobs and less economic growth over the long term. Estimates of the economic damages from warming of 4°C over preindustrial levels range from 1% to 5% of global GDP each year by 2100 ... In addition, these estimates factor in economic damages but do not address the critical question of whether the underlying rate of economic growth (rather than just the level of GDP) is affected by climate change, so these studies could substantially understate the potential damage of climate change on the global macroeconomy (8, 9).

and citing the recent GPL paper on the global effects of temperature on growth

Talk about a president who gets into the nuts and bolts...

Coolest author affiliation... ever